Long-Term Holders Drive Bitcoin Scarcity
Bitcoin’s long-term holders are now absorbing newly issued supply at a pace significantly higher than miner issuance. New on-chain data shows that the 30-day supply change among long-term holders has surged far above the current monthly issuance rate.
This difference indicates the existence of supply-side pressure in the market because long-term traders are making strong demand. Issuance is now at about 27,000 BTC every month after the halving event.
But long-term holders are putting considerably more than that amount into their wallets. This continuous activity decreases tradable volume and provides a basis for price rise.
Long-term holders are now absorbing BTC over 55 times faster than what miners are issuing each month. This is the sign of a conviction-driven demand, when market players would rather want to hold than sell.
Such persistent accumulation is seen as a bullish long-term signal. In addition to on-chain metrics, historical price trends also favor Bitcoin in the current month.
July Delivers 71% Win Rate for Bitcoin as Retail Wallets Join Accumulation Trend
July is one of the strongest months for Bitcoin performance. From 2012 to 2025, the month has delivered positive returns in 10 out of 14 years. That amounts to a 71% success rate.
This includes a 41.03% gain in July 2012 and a 23.34% increase in July 2021. More recent data confirms that July 2025 has already shown positive movement, with a 10.24% increase.
The tenth month is even higher than July in terms of profit consistency. In the last 14 years, there has been a high percentage of positive returns experienced in October. This implies that the fourth quarter could also continue with the bullish mode, provided market conditions are good.
Like long-term holders, retail-sized Bitcoin wallets are also absorbing more BTC than miners are issuing each month, indicating stronger grassroots accumulation. According to new on-chain data, wallets holding less than 100 BTC (classified as Shrimps, Crabs, and Fish) are collectively accumulating around 19,300 BTC per month.
Retail and Institutional Buys Intensify BTC’s Supply Tightening
In comparison, monthly Bitcoin issuance from miners stands at only 13,400 BTC. This trend means that smaller holders are absorbing all newly mined Bitcoin and more.
This is creating measurable supply-side tightening in the market. The data indicates that the number of BTC that this class of investors is buying is approximately 6,000 more than the amount created by miners.
This change is one of the major signs of the increasing belief by retail investors. Hence, this continuing net intake could lead to strains on the available supply.
With the reduction in issuance after the halving, an upward price pressure is likely to take place. Meanwhile, institutional demand for Bitcoin keeps increasing.
On July 11, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $1.03 billion. This was the seventh consecutive day of net inflows of positive inflows. This daily demand shows that institutions are increasingly investing more capital into BTC, establishing it as a long-term asset.
There is also a consistent inflow of capital in Ethereum ETFs. The same day as their BTC counterparts, they registered net inflows of $205 million. This marked six days of inflows in a row by ETH-related spot funds.
Corporate Buy Reaches All-Time High on Q2 2025
The continued popularity of both ETFs shows that mainstream investors are putting more confidence in crypto-derivative financial products. On one side, retail holders are absorbing BTC directly from the open market.
On the other hand, institutions are acquiring large quantities through ETF channels. Both flows are reducing the available supply on exchanges and in circulation.
The current monthly retail accumulation rate now exceeds miner supply by nearly 44%. This supply effect may change when there’s a sudden increase in demand.
In the meantime, the rate of Bitcoin treasury acquisitions is growing historically fast, and Q2 2025 witnessed the greatest single-quarter acquisition in history. 152,800 BTC was purchased within this quarter alone.
Early quarters from Q3 2020 to Q2 2025 show steady but modest growth. However, accumulation begins to rise noticeably in 2023 and continues upward.
But Q2 2025 breaks all previous records by a wide margin. With corporate demand surging and issuance declining post-halving, the market is entering a new phase of aggressive accumulation.
