Week Ahead: Goldman’s Delayed Cuts, CPI, and the Gold Range
Three setups into Monday open.
CPI Wednesday is the only print that moves the tape this week. Iran cable rhetoric is calendar-spread bid, not front-month risk. Gold at $4,700 is the cleanest range trade on the board.
Goldman Sachs pushed back its rate cut forecast by one quarter. The first cut is now expected in December 2026, with another in March 2027. The reason: energy cost pass-through will likely keep core PCE inflation near 3% throughout the year, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
As we outlined in our risk management guide, positioning into known catalysts – not chasing the first reaction – is the disciplined approach for weeks like this.
The Actual Catalysts This Week
Tuesday, 12 May, 13:30 BST · US CPI (April)
Headline consensus is 3.7% YoY, core at 2.7% YoY. This is the print that moves the tape. A hot print and front-end repricing dominates the rest of the week. A cool print and the Fed-cut trade re-engages. Position into the print. Do not chase the first 30-minute reaction.
Wednesday, 13 May (likely) · Senate final confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
Powell’s term ends Friday, 15 May. Warsh has been advanced by the Banking Committee on a 13–11 party-line vote and is widely expected to be confirmed before the deadline. The Warsh framework is materially more hawkish than Powell’s, especially on real rates and balance-sheet runoff. The market has been treating the nomination as a done deal, so the regime change is not fully priced. Watch for final-vote drama and the post-vote Treasury and dollar reaction.
For a deeper look at how the Fed shapes the dollar, our guide covers the interest rate and safe-haven channels that matter most right now.
Thursday, 14 May, 13:30 BST · US Retail Sales (April)
This is the post-CPI consumer-strength check. CPI hot and retail soft is the cleanest stagflation signal of the year so far. Both firm, and the soft-landing trade gets repriced.
Friday, 15 May · Powell’s final day as Fed Chair
The structural pivot moment. Any Powell speaking slot this week could carry meaningful legacy-frame language. Listen for hints on the framework Warsh inherits versus tears up.
Cross-Asset Desk Read
DXY at 97.8. The bid is not real-yield support. It is pre-CPI defensive flow. A cool print Wednesday and the dollar could come off 0.5–0.8% in 24 hours. A hot print and a 99 retest is in play within 48 hours.
USD/JPY at 156.6. The 156–160 zone is where carry traders re-engage. Below 154, the BoJ-shock thesis reprices. Above 161, MoF intervention odds go vertical. The pair tells you where institutional risk appetite sits in real time.
As we covered in our FX trading guide, USD/JPY is the cleanest expression of US-Japan rate differential expectations.
Goldman sees gold range-bound between roughly 4,600and4,850 in the near term. The price is a battleground between delayed Fed cuts (bearish – higher rates) and persistent geopolitical conflict (bullish – safe-haven demand).
Our guide on gold trading strategies explains the levels we are watching and how to position for the Fed’s next move.
Brent at $99–100. Trading the Hormuz spread, not the front month. The constant push for a diplomatic resolution has been capping the upside, but physical supply disruption continues.
For a deeper look at how oil drives currency markets, we have a full guide breaking down the transmission channels from energy prices to the dollar and risk sentiment.
Goldman’s Core Message: Higher for Longer, But Equities Still Have Room
Goldman’s core message for the coming week is cautious optimism mixed with delayed easing expectations. The firm has pushed back rate cut forecasts but maintains a positive view on US equities longer-term.
Fed: Delayed cuts, higher inflation for longer
| Previous Forecast | New Forecast |
|---|---|
| Next two cuts earlier in 2026 | December 2026 and March 2027 |
Why the change? Energy cost pass-through will likely keep core PCE inflation near 3% throughout 2026, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Higher energy and food costs, combined with SNAP and Medicaid cuts, are pressuring the bottom-income quintile.
What this means for markets:
- US Dollar (DXY): Supported in the near term. No cuts = no USD weakness catalyst.
- Gold: Capped upside. Higher real rates = higher opportunity cost for holding gold.
- Stocks: Mixed. Delayed cuts are a headwind, but Goldman still sees reasons to be positive.
S&P 500: More record highs ahead
Despite the delayed Fed pivot, Goldman’s head of equity execution remains bullish on US equities. The geopolitical environment has cooled – supporting risk assets. The economy remains healthy. Earnings have surprised to the upside.
The historical pattern: after the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs, the next month’s returns tend to be below average. However, returns over the next year are stronger than average. Longer-term-oriented investors should expect positive things from US equities.
Gold: Capped upside, but supported by geopolitics
Goldman’s delayed rate cut forecast has direct implications for gold. Higher real rates cap upside and raise opportunity costs. Geopolitical safe-haven demand provides a support floor.
The catalyst to watch: if energy prices stabilize and core PCE inflation cools, real yields could fall, giving gold a clear path toward the top of its range.
Oil and inflation: The critical watchpoint
Goldman’s entire outlook hinges on energy prices. Their report explicitly states that energy cost pass-through is the primary driver of persistent 3% core PCE inflation.
| Oil Price Scenario | Fed Implication | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Oil holds $95–105 | PCE stays near 3%, no cuts until December | USD supported, gold capped, S&P choppy |
| Oil breaks above $110 | Inflation risks escalate, cuts pushed further | USD up, gold down, S&P pressure |
| Oil falls below $90 | Inflation cools, cuts could come sooner | USD down, gold up, S&P rally |
Goldman’s base case is the first scenario – elevated but stable oil prices keeping inflation sticky but not spiking.
The One Thing Goldman Is Watching Most
Energy prices. Every other forecast – Fed cuts, inflation, gold’s ceiling, the dollar’s support – depends on what oil does next.
From the report: “The primary catalyst for this inflation outlook is the conflict in the Middle East, which has upended the global energy market and created deep uncertainty.”
As we covered in our risk management guide, when the entire outlook hinges on one variable, position sizing and patience matter more than conviction.
Bottom Line
CPI Wednesday is the only print that moves the tape this week. Position into the print, not consensus. Do not chase the first 30-minute reaction.
Gold at $4,700 is the cleanest range trade on the board. DXY at 97.8 is sitting on pre-CPI defensive flow, not real-yield support. USD/JPY in the 156–160 zone tells you where institutional risk appetite sits in real time.
Goldman sees delayed cuts, sticky inflation, and a supported dollar. But the entire outlook hinges on oil.
Watch the Strait. Watch CPI. Watch the Warsh vote.
Have a great trading week.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trading recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any asset. Trading forex, commodities, and equities carries significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. I only recommend brokers and firms I have researched. Always read full terms and risk disclosures before trading. Do your own research.